Normally, I resist making perishable posts about ephemeral events hyped in the media. However, it appears we’re at a historical juncture of some description, however hype-fueled, and I might as well weigh in. Everyone else is, and what else can you do?
All opinions on all matters described are irrelevant. All of them. This means your disagreements with me are irrelevant, too. All of the important decisions are out of our hands, we are not privy to any internal memos and our opinions don’t matter. What we do, does.
This should be 1080-p high-definition clear to anyone who isn’t already wrapped up in policing how other people are supposed to think. As for those, we cannot help them. Nor will we afford these noisome creatures the attention they crave.
Now then, the tl;dr, the executive summary, whatever we’re calling it, my speculations given the incomplete and unreliable data I’ve seen:
The Chinese Flu, the ‘Rona, the Peking Pulmonary Pox, etc., is more hype than anything else. We’ve had multiple outbreaks of several variants of influenza that have killed far more people. We were urged to get our flu shots, nothing more. The susceptible died—tens of thousands among multiple billions—and the world went on about its business. It was as simple as that.
Someone somewhere decided they were trying a little experiment this time. Businesses were ordered closed and now millions are out of work. If this flu was as virulent as Yersinia pestis (plague) in the 14th century, or smallpox at any other time, sure, lock things down. This COVID-19 is, by most accounts, a killer of the elderly and those with pulmonary systems already weakened by asthma, pneumonia, etc. It’s serious enough for the susceptible. Not serious enough to warrant what’s going on now.
But my opinion, like yours, doesn’t matter. We’re here, and this is what’s happening. The closest historical analogy I have to what’s going on now is the 1973 Arab oil embargo, which brought nearly 20 years of classic Detroit steel and muscle cars to a close, set norms on winter and summer thermostat temperatures, and plunged the U.S. into a deep spasms of inflation-driven recession that lasted throughout the rest of the decade and didn’t break until near the end Ronald Reagan’s first term in 1984.
There were other factors at work influencing the changes—as there are now, both cultural and political. Same as it ever was. We already know we’re going to be living in a completely different world when we come out the other end of this thing. The question is what that world is going to look like. Will the authoritarians win? Or will enough people push back and begin angrily sweeping away all those things they tolerated as part and parcel of livin’ in the USA six weeks ago, but now appear as they truly are, stupid and frivolous.
For what it’s worth I don’t see a decade-long drowning in inflation like from 1973 to 1982, but the precise opposite, an explosion of exuberant economic activity once the bans are lifted. People will pack the restaurants and bars and other public venues in celebration of their release.
Where will the money come from? Everyone with a credit card is just going to put it on the card. Sort of like the U.S. federal government has been doing all along, except we have to pay our debts back. The main thing is to lift these bans as quickly as possible. I really don’t see these things going all the way until the end of April. Most people don’t have savings to sustain them beyond the occasional brake job, if that (I’m one of ‘em), and if they’ve got credit cards, that’s how they’re paying for groceries and everything else.
This is all speculation, of course. Whether I’m right or wrong has nothing to do with anything; I am in control of nothing except what I do right here at my desk. I have a novel to finish. No, I haven’t observed anything to make me change my approach towards the collapse of civilization in my series, and I thank God most unironically for that. I’ve got all the rewriting I can handle right now.
Thanks to my wife’s usual assiduousness in shopping we were and still are well-provisioned. We also are in good health, so far, so good. I’m also That Guy. That is, aside from being an amateur epidemiological expert, I’m also a natural introvert. I’m socially awkward and avoid people when I can, with only very special exceptions. At this desk in front of this computer in this house is my favorite place on Earth to be.
In sum, it’s strange days but I’m good, and here’s hoping you’re the same. The only way out of this is through. As a famous functional alcoholic once put it, if you’re going through hell, keep going. So that’s what we’ll do.
Be well.
A quick P.S., because I want this absolutely clear: I find this current plague panic similar to the 1973 Arab oil embargo and the subsequent long, deep recession only inasmuch as culture is changing because of it. That’s heavy enough, but I want it noted that there is absolutely no precedent whatsoever in this old man’s recollection of people being ordered to stay in their houses and forbidden freedom of peaceable assembly as per the 1st Amendment to the Constitution. This is a completely new one on me. A new one on a lot of people, I imagine. How long is this sustainable? I’m not even trying to spitball on that one. We’ll just have to wait and see.
I know this much: what happens will largely depend on how many people know people who are actually sick with this thing. Is this flu a media-driven hype or a real and present danger? I lean towards “hype,” but what do I know? Only that I lean towards hype, but I really don’t know. Yet.
My predictions, presented here as an investment for our future amusement (look, Ma, I’m an optimist!), are, 1) these bans on business openings and assemblies won’t go all the way through April. I pray I’m right on this because, 2) depending on how long the bans and quarantines last, the economy should surge like a crazy surging thing once the reins are loosened. Naturally, it depends on how much cash and credit people have left after not working so long and paying bills.
Here’s hoping we’re all here to congratulate me on my perspicacity later.
Someone somewhere decided they were trying a little experiment this time. Businesses were ordered closed and now millions are out of work. If this flu was as virulent as Yersinia pestis (plague) in the 14th century, or smallpox at any other time, sure, lock things down. This COVID-19 is, by most accounts, a killer of the elderly and those with pulmonary systems already weakened by asthma, pneumonia, etc. It’s serious enough for the susceptible. Not serious enough to warrant what’s going on now.
 |
| An incomplete representation of my plague porn collection. When you know about the big killers and how they changed the very fabric of the societies they ravaged, it’s hard to be impressed by a basic bitch (bitchy enough, mind you) like COVID-19. By the way, I’m aware of how Richard Preston’s reputation has suffered due to his exaggerations in The Hot Zone (lower left) and other books. What can I say, except I’ve read the bad with the good. Preston simply took the journalistic maxim, “If it bleeds, it leads” a bit more literally than he should have. |
But my opinion, like yours, doesn’t matter. We’re here, and this is what’s happening. The closest historical analogy I have to what’s going on now is the 1973 Arab oil embargo, which brought nearly 20 years of classic Detroit steel and muscle cars to a close, set norms on winter and summer thermostat temperatures, and plunged the U.S. into a deep spasms of inflation-driven recession that lasted throughout the rest of the decade and didn’t break until near the end Ronald Reagan’s first term in 1984.
There were other factors at work influencing the changes—as there are now, both cultural and political. Same as it ever was. We already know we’re going to be living in a completely different world when we come out the other end of this thing. The question is what that world is going to look like. Will the authoritarians win? Or will enough people push back and begin angrily sweeping away all those things they tolerated as part and parcel of livin’ in the USA six weeks ago, but now appear as they truly are, stupid and frivolous.
For what it’s worth I don’t see a decade-long drowning in inflation like from 1973 to 1982, but the precise opposite, an explosion of exuberant economic activity once the bans are lifted. People will pack the restaurants and bars and other public venues in celebration of their release.
Where will the money come from? Everyone with a credit card is just going to put it on the card. Sort of like the U.S. federal government has been doing all along, except we have to pay our debts back. The main thing is to lift these bans as quickly as possible. I really don’t see these things going all the way until the end of April. Most people don’t have savings to sustain them beyond the occasional brake job, if that (I’m one of ‘em), and if they’ve got credit cards, that’s how they’re paying for groceries and everything else.
 |
| This is a historical landmark run as a non-profit by local volunteers. At least these people aren’t suffering for this, just their paying jobs. |
This is all speculation, of course. Whether I’m right or wrong has nothing to do with anything; I am in control of nothing except what I do right here at my desk. I have a novel to finish. No, I haven’t observed anything to make me change my approach towards the collapse of civilization in my series, and I thank God most unironically for that. I’ve got all the rewriting I can handle right now.
Thanks to my wife’s usual assiduousness in shopping we were and still are well-provisioned. We also are in good health, so far, so good. I’m also That Guy. That is, aside from being an amateur epidemiological expert, I’m also a natural introvert. I’m socially awkward and avoid people when I can, with only very special exceptions. At this desk in front of this computer in this house is my favorite place on Earth to be.
In sum, it’s strange days but I’m good, and here’s hoping you’re the same. The only way out of this is through. As a famous functional alcoholic once put it, if you’re going through hell, keep going. So that’s what we’ll do.
Be well.
 |
| Most restaurants in town have given up even on the takeout. It simply isn’t worth the manpower. |
A quick P.S., because I want this absolutely clear: I find this current plague panic similar to the 1973 Arab oil embargo and the subsequent long, deep recession only inasmuch as culture is changing because of it. That’s heavy enough, but I want it noted that there is absolutely no precedent whatsoever in this old man’s recollection of people being ordered to stay in their houses and forbidden freedom of peaceable assembly as per the 1st Amendment to the Constitution. This is a completely new one on me. A new one on a lot of people, I imagine. How long is this sustainable? I’m not even trying to spitball on that one. We’ll just have to wait and see.
I know this much: what happens will largely depend on how many people know people who are actually sick with this thing. Is this flu a media-driven hype or a real and present danger? I lean towards “hype,” but what do I know? Only that I lean towards hype, but I really don’t know. Yet.
My predictions, presented here as an investment for our future amusement (look, Ma, I’m an optimist!), are, 1) these bans on business openings and assemblies won’t go all the way through April. I pray I’m right on this because, 2) depending on how long the bans and quarantines last, the economy should surge like a crazy surging thing once the reins are loosened. Naturally, it depends on how much cash and credit people have left after not working so long and paying bills.
Here’s hoping we’re all here to congratulate me on my perspicacity later.
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